欧俄能源合作中的大国博弈

At present,the European Union,the United States and Russia are engaged in some political jousting over energy resourcing between Europe and Russia based on their different interests and geostrategic orientation.The US and Europe share similar geopolitical interests,while Europe and Russia share economic interests in energy cooperation,and this dichotomy will have a major impact on the evolving trilateral relations among the EU,the US and Russia.Therefore,it is necessary to deepen our analysis of the major-power contention in EU-Russia energy cooperation and study its influence and future trend.     

From centralisation to fragmentation and back again: the role of non-state actors in Brazil’s transformed foreign policy

Abstract

Since the 1990s, Brazil’s foreign policy-making, traditionally a highly centralised and hierarchical process, has become more fragmented, plural and horizontal. In this context, the role of non-state actors has been increasingly relevant. The impact and significance of these actors have been however a matter of debate. While there are authors that consider that non-state actors play only a secondary role in the policy-making process, there are others that assert that these actors work alongside governmental actors and directly influence policy choices. Drawing on the concept of network governance, the paper proposes a different view from the two recurrent approaches in the literature mentioned above. It argues that the recent steps to transform Brazil’s state governance from hierarchy to horizontal networks have indeed expanded the room for the direct participation of non-state actors in the policy process. However, state authorities fought to adjust this tendency, in order to retain control over the decision-making process, by putting in place formal and informal coordinating mechanisms led by the Ministry of Foreign Relations and the Presidency. This suggests Brazil’s foreign policy was made in the shadow of hierarchy. The paper demonstrates the argument using the case of Brazil’s foreign policy towards China.     

How do coalition signals shape voting behavior? Revealing the mediating role of coalition expectations

Existing empirical research suggests that there are two mechanisms through which pre-electoral coalition signals shape voting behavior. According to these, coalition signals both shift the perceived ideological positions of parties and prime coalition considerations at the cost of party considerations. The work at hand is the first to test another possibility of how coalition signals affect voting. This coalition expectation mechanism claims that coalition signals affect voting decisions by changing voters' expectations about which coalitions are likely to form after the election. Moreover, this paper provides the first integrative overview of all three mechanisms that link coalition signals and individual voting behavior. Results from a survey experiment conducted during Sweden's 2018 general election suggest that the coalition expectation mechanism can indeed be at work. By showing how parties' pre-electoral coalition behavior enter a voter's decision calculus, the paper provides important insights for the literature on strategic voting theories in proportional systems.     

边界功能、威胁认知与中国对陆上边界问题的应对

2017年6月,中印在洞朗地区发生边界对峙。中方在此次危机中始终保持了克制,并未通过武力方式解决边界危机。这与中国在1962年运用军事手段应对印度的挑衅截然不同。为何针对与同一个对象国出现的同类性质危机,中国的应对方式存在显著差异?文章认为,中国对陆上边界问题的处理方式,主要受到边界功能和决策者对威胁程度的认知这两个因素的影响。基于中国决策者对边界功能是政治与安全功能凸显还是经济功能优先,以及对对象国行为所带来的威胁认知高低程度不同的判断,将导致中国对边界问题采取四种应对方式:诉诸武力、展示决心(包括军事对峙等)、外交谈判、互利合作。通过对中国处理1962年与2017年两次中印边界危机、1956年中缅边界问题、2004年中俄边界问题的方式进行分析,可以发现上述分析框架得到了初步验证。文章通过探讨中国对陆上边界问题采取不同应对措施的原因,不仅有助于厘清影响中国政府针对陆上边界问题采取差异化应对措施的因素,还有利于为中国恰当地处理中印领土争端及其他陆上争议边界问题提供一定的启示,进而为改善中国周边外交、保障中华民族的伟大复兴提供初步的政策建议。     

Responsibility to Protect: Russia’s Approaches

Abstract

Russia’s predominantly suspicious and even negative attitudes toward R2P are closely related to its traditional attachment to the notion of sovereignty, but its reluctance to ‘bless’ the use of force with R2P also serves as a pretext to cover various instrumental goals. Russia’s more assertive foreign policy has exacerbated this trend. Disagreements stem from differences between Russia and the West both in their conceptual approaches to security and in their assessments of specific cases. In particular, Russia has an existential concern over possible application of R2P by extra-regional actors in its immediate post-Soviet vicinity. However, in the conflicts around South Ossetia (2008) and Crimea / Southeastern Ukraine (2014-), there was a noticeable trend to refocus R2P-related arguments in support of Russia’s own actions. By and large, R2P continues to be perceived as a Western attempt to establish certain rules of behaviour which require caution and prudence. Nevertheless, more positive attitudes do not seem impossible. To play a prominent role in the evolving international system, Russia will have to make the R2P segment of its foreign policy more salient and overcome the lag in promoting this concept as a working tool indispensable for cooperative and responsible leadership.     

政治领导与大国崛起安全

道义现实主义国际关系理论的核心原理是:决定大国兴衰的根本原因是大国的政治领导力,其本质是一国政府为适应不断变动的国际国内战略环境而进行改革的方向、决心与能力。根据道义现实主义原理,中国综合国力居世界第二位是中国制定崛起目标和策略的基础,符合国力基础的目标和战略就易于成功,而超越实力基础的目标和战略则会削弱中国的实力。道义现实主义认为,外交承诺与实力保持一致有利于提高国际战略信誉,从而减少国际社会对崛起国的恐惧和反对;为周边国家提供安全保障可获得对崛起国的战略支持;为减少崛起的国际阻力,崛起国应在新兴领域拓展利益范围而尽量避免在传统领域的利益冲突。在信息化时代,在网络空间拓展中国国际战略利益应成为中国主攻方向,网络战略应采取"走出去"原则而非为了安全的防御原则。在外部威胁不足以颠覆中国崛起的情况下,为防止中国的崛起半途夭折的重点将是防范国内的极左陷阱。"台独"正在成为中国崛起面临的首要威胁,中美在南海的战略竞争将长期化,朝鲜拥核是中国的东北亚地区政策无法回避的既成事实。     

Israel,the Arab Spring,and the unfolding regional order in the Middle East: a strategic assessment

Since 2011, geo-strategic interactions have exerted pressure on various political communities. In particular, uncertainty over the foreign policy intentions of new leadership elites and the nature of the unfolding regional security system in the Middle East have impacted the strategic questions Israel must answer: how can Israel rationally assess the new environment? What foreign policy approach would best serve Israel’s distinct national interests? Using insights from the levels-of-analysis framework and from the realist theory of International Relations, this article aims to explore Israel’s reading of recent regional developments and its attitudes and behaviours towards the attendant and emerging strategic challenges. The analysis reveals that the Arab Spring uprisings exacerbated the already anarchic Middle East environment, aggravating mistrust and antagonism in Israel. The urgency of the attraction of protectionism and militarism in Israel was an expression of the realist approach to Israel’s primary strategic consolidation. With time, the regional dynamic has evolved into a more predictable—but still complex—structure than it was during its early phase (2010–2013). Although there have been signs of potential regional political eruptions, other developments have promoted continuity in the Middle East, which plays to Israel’s strategic advantage.     

Russia’s energy relations in Southeastern Europe: an analysis of motives in Bulgaria and Greece

Although officially Russian state-owned energy companies operate as independent entities, their actions often lead to suspicion that they are acting as a tool of Russian state foreign policy. Countries on the southeastern borders of Europe – Bulgaria and Greece – are prime examples of where this might be the case, since they not only have a central position in Russia’s plans to penetrate European markets through new transport infrastructure but are also part of competing plans for routing non-Russian gas to Western markets. The main focus of the present research is on the natural gas and oil sectors, as these are the traditional foundation of Russian energy exports to Europe. The aim of this paper is thus to provide an objective, evidence-based analysis of Russian activities in the natural gas and oil sectors of Greece and Bulgaria in order to establish whether its actions have been implicitly or explicitly politicized and have served to strengthen Russian influence in the region.